Positive developments include rising consumer confidence, stronger forecasts for growth, and data that suggests inflation has peaked, even if it remains above the federal target range.
Could the economy really avoid the long-forecasted recession?
At the risk of jinxing things, the odds look favorable – at the moment.
Macro-level economic data that’s come out recently regarding consumer confidence, spending, growth forecasts and the battle against inflation suggest that the economy is moving in the right direction and will continue to in 2024.
Of course, the lessons of 2020 will make many leery of declaring victory against a downturn too soon, but certain big numbers are bolstering the case for economic optimism. That’s good news for the promotional products industry, whose fortunes often rise and fall with the general economy. Here’s a snapshot of some numbers to know.
Stats
2.1%
Forecasted growth of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 compared to 2023. That’s up from a late-last-year forecast of 1.5%.
(International Monetary Fund, IMF)
3.1%
Just-released IMF forecast for global growth in 2024, up two-tenths of a percentage point from its October forecast.
3.3%
Year-over-year U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023.
(Bureau of Economic Analysis)
2.5%
Increase in U.S. economic output in 2023 compared to 2022.
(Bureau of Economic Analysis)
“What we’ve seen is a very resilient global economy… and that’s going to carry over into 2024.”
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, to CNBC.
Two-Year High
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to a reading of 114.8 in January 2024, the highest level since December 2021.
103
Projected Counselor Confidence Index reading for 2024. The index measures promo distributor financial health and optimism. That reading is above the baseline of 100, roughly in line with scores seen during the industry’s post-pandemic recovery, and up from Q4 2023.
(ASI Research)
$26.1 Billion
Promotional products distributors’ collective sales in 2023, a new record that was achieved despite slower growth in the second half of the year.
(ASI Research)
“Our outlook for 2024 is optimistic. We’re seeing increasing demand across the healthcare, retail and manufacturing sectors. Moreover, there is once again positive momentum among the larger technology companies, driven by their renewed focus on growth.”
Terry McGuire, HALO Branded Solutions (asi/356000)
3.7%
Current U.S unemployment rate. That remains near historic lows, economists say.
(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
3.8%
Increase in U.S. retail holiday sales for the November and December period of 2023 compared to the same period a year ago.
(National Retail Federation)
3.4% Inflation
Annual rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2023. That was better than the 6.4% jump experienced a year earlier in December 2022, but still above the Federal Reserve’s target rate increase of 2% inflation. CPI tracks what consumers pay.
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
1% Inflation
Annual rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in December. PPI measures prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 2.5% year over year. On a month-over-month basis, PPI declined 0.1% in December 2023 compared to November 2023.
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
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